Development and validation of a risk score for predicting operative mortality in heart failure patients undergoing surgical ventricular reconstruction

This study describes the development and validation of a risk score for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing surgical ventricular reconstruction (SVR). The study included data on 525 patients who underwent SVR at a single institution since 2001. Most patients (93%) had cocomitant CABG and 27% of patients had concomitant mitral surgery. In-hospital or 30-day mortality occurred in 9.1% of patients. Risk factors included in the risk score which was developed using mulitvariate logistic regression include the ACEF score (based on the patients age, creatinine and ejection fraction), atrial fibrillation, NYHA III/IV symptoms and concomitant mitral surgery. On internal bootstrapped validation, the new model demonstrated improved discrimination and calibration compared to the ACEF score alone.