Development of a Novel Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Congenital Mortality Risk Model

This report describes a new Society of Thoracic Surgeons mortality risk model for adults with congenital heart disease undergoing cardiac operations that are not included in existing risk models. A risk model was developed using forty-seven congenital variables in 192,196 patients operated on between 2011 and 2019. The risk model was more accurate at predicting operative mortality in adult patients undergoing congenital cardiac surgery (C statistic, 0.815) than the existing Society of Thoracic Surgeons adult risk model without congenital variables (C statistic, 0.79). This will support an online risk calculator for adult patients undergoing congenital cardiac surgery.