Development of a Prediction Model for Ascending Aortic Diameter Among Asymptomatic Individuals

Pirruccello and associates from Massachusetts General Hospital developed a prediction model for ascending aortic diameter in a cohort of 30,018 asymptomatic individuals based on eleven variables: age (years), gender, body mass index (kg/m2), heart rate (bpm), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (mm Hg), height (cm), weight (kg), and the presence or absence of a diagnosis of diabetes, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia.  The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve ranged from 0.77 to 0.81 for identifying individuals with an ascending aortic diameter 4 cm or greater in validation cohorts. This is an important step in identifying early signs of ascending thoracic aortic disease, a common cause of sudden death in the U.S.