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Thirty-Year Trends in Graft Survival After Heart Transplant: Modeled Analyses of a Transplant Registry
Data from Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients was modeled over 30 years to evaluate temporal trends, as well as graft survival.
Among 56,488 primary adult heart recipients, we observed 5529 (9.8%) all-cause deaths and 1933 (3.4%) graft failure events within 6 months posttransplant. Prevalence of known recipient risk factors increased over time. Unadjusted modeling demonstrated a significant 30-year improvement in graft survival, averaging 2.6% per year (95% confidence interval, 2.4-2.9; P for trend < .001). After adjusting for population changes the 30-year trend remained significant and graft survival improved on average 3.0% per year (95% confidence interval, 2.6-3.3). Regression modeling identified multiple predictors of graft survival. Modeling 2 additional outcomes of 6-month mortality and 6-month graft failure produced similar results.